US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian coastal defenses and cruise-missile facilities on Greater Tunb during escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, damaging IRGC infrastructure but leaving administrative and military control with Iran unchanged. The island has remained under Tehran’s authority since its 1971 seizure alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, despite UAE sovereignty claims and Gulf Cooperation Council statements. Iran has reinforced its position through recent missile deployments on the Tunbs and formal land registration, while diplomatic channels such as International Court of Justice referrals show no active resolution process. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any occupation, handover, or effective challenge capable of altering on-the-ground authority by late summer 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa Grande Isola di Tunb non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
La Grande Isola di Tunb non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
$55,050 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre
1%
$55,050 Vol.
30 settembre
$382 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian coastal defenses and cruise-missile facilities on Greater Tunb during escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, damaging IRGC infrastructure but leaving administrative and military control with Iran unchanged. The island has remained under Tehran’s authority since its 1971 seizure alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, despite UAE sovereignty claims and Gulf Cooperation Council statements. Iran has reinforced its position through recent missile deployments on the Tunbs and formal land registration, while diplomatic channels such as International Court of Justice referrals show no active resolution process. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any occupation, handover, or effective challenge capable of altering on-the-ground authority by late summer 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volume
$55,050Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian coastal defenses and cruise-missile facilities on Greater Tunb during escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, damaging IRGC infrastructure but leaving administrative and military control with Iran unchanged. The island has remained under Tehran’s authority since its 1971 seizure alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, despite UAE sovereignty claims and Gulf Cooperation Council statements. Iran has reinforced its position through recent missile deployments on the Tunbs and formal land registration, while diplomatic channels such as International Court of Justice referrals show no active resolution process. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any occupation, handover, or effective challenge capable of altering on-the-ground authority by late summer 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$55,050Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian coastal defenses and cruise-missile facilities on Greater Tunb during escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, damaging IRGC infrastructure but leaving administrative and military control with Iran unchanged. The island has remained under Tehran’s authority since its 1971 seizure alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, despite UAE sovereignty claims and Gulf Cooperation Council statements. Iran has reinforced its position through recent missile deployments on the Tunbs and formal land registration, while diplomatic channels such as International Court of Justice referrals show no active resolution process. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any occupation, handover, or effective challenge capable of altering on-the-ground authority by late summer 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti