Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You,” the Toy Story 5 soundtrack single, holds a 93.5% implied probability for Billboard Hot 100 #2 the week of August 22 because of its sustained dominance in U.S. streaming, radio airplay, and sales data since its June debut at #1. The track’s record-breaking first-day streams, multiple weeks at or near the summit, and crossover appeal as a country-leaning pop hit from a major animated franchise have created overwhelming trader consensus around its chart position. Other contenders, including tracks from Ariana Grande, Morgan Wallen, and Ella Langley, register far lower probabilities given weaker current metrics and typical release cycles. An upset remains possible if late-week streaming surges or radio adds dramatically shift the final tallies before the chart locks, though historical patterns favor the established frontrunner in such scenarios.