Claudia Sheinbaum maintains a firm hold on Mexico’s presidency through her leadership of the Morena party and continued implementation of the Fourth Transformation agenda, including recent launches of Plan México to streamline investment approvals and a multi-year infrastructure program. Her approval ratings have held in the low-to-mid 50s amid persistent security challenges and U.S. pressure over cartel ties, most recently following indictments that prompted temporary resignations by Sinaloa officials and exposed internal party divisions. Traders see limited near-term risk of removal because constitutional term limits and strong congressional majorities block early exit mechanisms, while scheduled USMCA renegotiation talks and ongoing security cooperation offer avenues for managed bilateral relations rather than escalation. Any shift would likely require a major domestic crisis or health development to alter current consensus.