Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket at essentially 100% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 24-26, 2026, because recent comparable three-day windows settled squarely inside that range amid routine commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and platform metrics. Musk’s established cadence of 15-25 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day during non-event periods produces totals in this band when no major product launches, political exchanges, or viral threads accelerate volume. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus around this baseline rather than any dramatic slowdown. An upset into higher brackets would require an unexpected high-profile announcement or sustained engagement spike before resolution at the close of August 26.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$542,845 Vol.
$542,845 Vol.
26 ago 2026
<40
No
40-64
Sì
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$542,845 Vol.
$542,845 Vol.
26 ago 2026
<40
$61,562 Vol.
No
40-64
$167,510 Vol.
Sì
65-89
$87,195 Vol.
No
90-114
$93,515 Vol.
No
115-139
$54,515 Vol.
No
140-164
$47,742 Vol.
No
165-189
$11,081 Vol.
No
190-214
$11,238 Vol.
No
215-239
$2,876 Vol.
No
240+
$5,611 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket at essentially 100% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 24-26, 2026, because recent comparable three-day windows settled squarely inside that range amid routine commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and platform metrics. Musk’s established cadence of 15-25 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day during non-event periods produces totals in this band when no major product launches, political exchanges, or viral threads accelerate volume. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus around this baseline rather than any dramatic slowdown. An upset into higher brackets would require an unexpected high-profile announcement or sustained engagement spike before resolution at the close of August 26.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$542,845Data di fine
26 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket at essentially 100% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 24-26, 2026, because recent comparable three-day windows settled squarely inside that range amid routine commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and platform metrics. Musk’s established cadence of 15-25 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day during non-event periods produces totals in this band when no major product launches, political exchanges, or viral threads accelerate volume. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus around this baseline rather than any dramatic slowdown. An upset into higher brackets would require an unexpected high-profile announcement or sustained engagement spike before resolution at the close of August 26.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$542,845Data di fine
26 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket at essentially 100% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 24-26, 2026, because recent comparable three-day windows settled squarely inside that range amid routine commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and platform metrics. Musk’s established cadence of 15-25 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day during non-event periods produces totals in this band when no major product launches, political exchanges, or viral threads accelerate volume. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus around this baseline rather than any dramatic slowdown. An upset into higher brackets would require an unexpected high-profile announcement or sustained engagement spike before resolution at the close of August 26.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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