Recent national polls place Republican support among Black voters between 7% and 14% for the 2026 House contests, with Pew Research showing 7% and Rasmussen Reports at 14%. Trader pricing clusters tightly around 8–11% because GOP outreach to Black communities has narrowed since 2024 gains, party committees declined targeted canvassing proposals, and Black unemployment has risen to 7%. High Democratic engagement, elevated undecided shares in some surveys, and the historical midterm base rate near single digits reinforce the narrow range. Late-cycle turnout shifts or stronger Republican messaging in key states could widen separation before exit-poll resolution.