Jury deliberations in Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial, which began May 13, 2026, have traders pricing a razor-thin contest between 10-20 years (33.1% implied probability) and no prison time (31.0%), reflecting deep uncertainty over the outcome amid his frail health—recent chest pains halted proceedings early. His 2022 California conviction for rape and sexual assault, carrying a 16-year sentence in the 10-20 year range, remains intact despite a skeptical appellate panel in April, while prior New York appeals overturned his 2020 term on procedural grounds. Key swing factors include a potential acquittal, mistrial echoing the second trial, or new conviction adding years; resolution hinges on this verdict and parallel appeals, underscoring the volatile legal saga's impact on #MeToo-era accountability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa prigione di Harvey Weinstein?
La prigione di Harvey Weinstein?
10-20 anni 40.9%
Nessun periodo di carcere 31.0%
20-30 anni 21.9%
<5 anni 9.3%
$927,686 Vol.
$927,686 Vol.
31 dic 2025
Nessun periodo di carcere
31%
<5 anni
9%
5-10 anni
4%
10-20 anni
33%
20-30 anni
22%
Più di 30 anni
7%
10-20 anni 40.9%
Nessun periodo di carcere 31.0%
20-30 anni 21.9%
<5 anni 9.3%
$927,686 Vol.
$927,686 Vol.
31 dic 2025
Nessun periodo di carcere
$330,758 Vol.
31%
<5 anni
$122,700 Vol.
9%
5-10 anni
$72,501 Vol.
4%
10-20 anni
$148,634 Vol.
33%
20-30 anni
$187,183 Vol.
22%
Più di 30 anni
$65,910 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jury deliberations in Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial, which began May 13, 2026, have traders pricing a razor-thin contest between 10-20 years (33.1% implied probability) and no prison time (31.0%), reflecting deep uncertainty over the outcome amid his frail health—recent chest pains halted proceedings early. His 2022 California conviction for rape and sexual assault, carrying a 16-year sentence in the 10-20 year range, remains intact despite a skeptical appellate panel in April, while prior New York appeals overturned his 2020 term on procedural grounds. Key swing factors include a potential acquittal, mistrial echoing the second trial, or new conviction adding years; resolution hinges on this verdict and parallel appeals, underscoring the volatile legal saga's impact on #MeToo-era accountability.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$927,686Data di fine
31 dic 2025Mercato aperto
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jury deliberations in Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial, which began May 13, 2026, have traders pricing a razor-thin contest between 10-20 years (33.1% implied probability) and no prison time (31.0%), reflecting deep uncertainty over the outcome amid his frail health—recent chest pains halted proceedings early. His 2022 California conviction for rape and sexual assault, carrying a 16-year sentence in the 10-20 year range, remains intact despite a skeptical appellate panel in April, while prior New York appeals overturned his 2020 term on procedural grounds. Key swing factors include a potential acquittal, mistrial echoing the second trial, or new conviction adding years; resolution hinges on this verdict and parallel appeals, underscoring the volatile legal saga's impact on #MeToo-era accountability.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$927,686Data di fine
31 dic 2025Mercato aperto
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jury deliberations in Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial, which began May 13, 2026, have traders pricing a razor-thin contest between 10-20 years (33.1% implied probability) and no prison time (31.0%), reflecting deep uncertainty over the outcome amid his frail health—recent chest pains halted proceedings early. His 2022 California conviction for rape and sexual assault, carrying a 16-year sentence in the 10-20 year range, remains intact despite a skeptical appellate panel in April, while prior New York appeals overturned his 2020 term on procedural grounds. Key swing factors include a potential acquittal, mistrial echoing the second trial, or new conviction adding years; resolution hinges on this verdict and parallel appeals, underscoring the volatile legal saga's impact on #MeToo-era accountability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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