The market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability on 31°C reflects Hong Kong Observatory measurements confirming that temperature as the verified daily maximum on October 2, 2026. Real-time station data recorded a peak near 30.9°C during afternoon hours before cooling under increasing northeasterly monsoon influence and scattered showers, aligning precisely with the 31°C threshold used for resolution. With the date concluded and official provisional records now available, alternative outcomes carry only residual uncertainty tied to final data validation or rounding conventions. Historical October maxima in Hong Kong typically range 28–32°C under similar transitional monsoon conditions, providing context for why traders rapidly converged on this outcome once observations were released.