Latest GFS and ECMWF model runs show Moscow's October 16 high reaching 14–16°C under clearing skies and light northeast winds following overnight showers. The modest warming stems from increased solar heating as high pressure builds, combined with downslope flow off the surrounding terrain and reduced cloud cover compared to the current frontal passage. Ensemble spreads remain tight around midday peaks, with minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and residual moisture determining whether the maximum settles at 13°C, 14°C, or 15°C. Historical mid-October averages near 9–10°C provide climatological context, while traders weigh the latest deterministic guidance and local observations to refine probabilities ahead of the daily maximum.