Recent forecasts from GFS-based models and agency outlooks indicate Moscow's October 3 maximum will likely fall in the 9–12°C range, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and limited solar heating under a stable pressure pattern are suppressing daytime warming, keeping highs near or slightly below the 12.4°C climatological average. Minor differences among leading bids reflect uncertainty in afternoon cloud breaks and any brief clearing that could add 1–2°C, while cooler scenarios hinge on thicker cloud or light precipitation lingering longer. New model runs and observational updates in the next 48 hours will sharpen resolution criteria for the daily maximum reading.