Latest ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models indicate Seoul's July 7 daytime maximum will likely fall in the 27–28°C range under typical midsummer conditions, with modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover and monsoon moisture. Afternoon convection or lingering stratus can reduce surface insolation and boundary-layer heating enough to cap readings at 27°C, while clearer skies and stronger southerly flow would support 28–29°C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects model spread in simulated precipitation timing and low-level humidity, typical for early-July conditions when the East Asian summer monsoon influences regional instability without a dominant heat dome.