Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI and PPI readings, with year-over-year consumer inflation at 3.8 percent and producer prices rising sharply amid elevated energy costs, have lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.50–4.60 percent as of mid-May. This move reflects trader reassessment of the pace of disinflation and the likelihood of additional Federal Reserve easing this year, with the benchmark rate currently held in the 3.50–3.75 percent range. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply continue to exert upward pressure on long-term yields, while resilient growth and sticky core inflation limit downside risks. Key near-term catalysts include the next CPI release, upcoming FOMC communications, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift market-implied rate paths.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$214,768 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3,9%
41%
3,8%
30%
3,7%
20%
3,6%
18%
3,5%
28%
3,0%
13%
2,0%
10%
1,0%
4%
$214,768 Vol.
3,9%
$40,687 Vol.
41%
3,8%
$39,358 Vol.
30%
3,7%
$26,365 Vol.
20%
3,6%
$4,730 Vol.
18%
3,5%
$31,523 Vol.
28%
3,0%
$446 Vol.
13%
2,0%
$341 Vol.
10%
1,0%
$39,559 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI and PPI readings, with year-over-year consumer inflation at 3.8 percent and producer prices rising sharply amid elevated energy costs, have lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.50–4.60 percent as of mid-May. This move reflects trader reassessment of the pace of disinflation and the likelihood of additional Federal Reserve easing this year, with the benchmark rate currently held in the 3.50–3.75 percent range. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply continue to exert upward pressure on long-term yields, while resilient growth and sticky core inflation limit downside risks. Key near-term catalysts include the next CPI release, upcoming FOMC communications, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift market-implied rate paths.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$214,768Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI and PPI readings, with year-over-year consumer inflation at 3.8 percent and producer prices rising sharply amid elevated energy costs, have lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.50–4.60 percent as of mid-May. This move reflects trader reassessment of the pace of disinflation and the likelihood of additional Federal Reserve easing this year, with the benchmark rate currently held in the 3.50–3.75 percent range. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply continue to exert upward pressure on long-term yields, while resilient growth and sticky core inflation limit downside risks. Key near-term catalysts include the next CPI release, upcoming FOMC communications, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift market-implied rate paths.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$214,768Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI and PPI readings, with year-over-year consumer inflation at 3.8 percent and producer prices rising sharply amid elevated energy costs, have lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.50–4.60 percent as of mid-May. This move reflects trader reassessment of the pace of disinflation and the likelihood of additional Federal Reserve easing this year, with the benchmark rate currently held in the 3.50–3.75 percent range. Persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply continue to exert upward pressure on long-term yields, while resilient growth and sticky core inflation limit downside risks. Key near-term catalysts include the next CPI release, upcoming FOMC communications, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift market-implied rate paths.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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