Anthropic and SpaceX remain neck-and-neck in market-implied odds for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, reflecting intense competition between the AI lab’s pending debut and SpaceX’s completed June offering. Anthropic’s confidential filing and November marketing timeline, with targets near $2 trillion, position it to potentially eclipse SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion valuation and record $75 billion raise, driven by its $65 billion-plus annualized revenue run rate and enterprise momentum despite steep losses. SpaceX’s post-IPO trading levels near $2 trillion underscore established scale in Starlink and launches, yet traders weigh whether Anthropic’s higher multiple expectations and fresh capital influx could set a new benchmark. xAI’s integration into SpaceX removes it as a standalone contender, sharpening focus on execution milestones and regulatory timing for the remaining candidates.