Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, with their 1M-token context windows, advanced agentic features, and strong performance on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, have driven the 69.7% implied probability that it will hold the top AI model spot by end of June. Traders view these updates as delivering reliable real-world capabilities that outpace competitors in enterprise and developer workflows. Google's 21.5% reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's benchmark leads in reasoning and accuracy, while OpenAI's 6.5% stems from GPT-5.5's solid all-rounder status without matching Anthropic's specialized edge. xAI and others trail due to narrower strengths. With the resolution approaching, any new model drops or major benchmark shifts could still alter the consensus before June closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il miglior modello di IA alla fine di giugno?
Quale azienda ha il miglior modello di IA alla fine di giugno?
Anthropic 69.6%
Google 21%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 1.4%
$5,902,694 Vol.
$5,902,694 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Anthropic
70%
21%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 69.6%
Google 21%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 1.4%
$5,902,694 Vol.
$5,902,694 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Anthropic
$834,196 Vol.
70%
$526,670 Vol.
21%
OpenAI
$336,078 Vol.
7%
xAI
$1,061,295 Vol.
1%
Meta
$131,336 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$499,333 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$158,414 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$298,054 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$477,694 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$151,592 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$155,103 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$375,763 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$359,482 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$377,405 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$160,279 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, with their 1M-token context windows, advanced agentic features, and strong performance on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, have driven the 69.7% implied probability that it will hold the top AI model spot by end of June. Traders view these updates as delivering reliable real-world capabilities that outpace competitors in enterprise and developer workflows. Google's 21.5% reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's benchmark leads in reasoning and accuracy, while OpenAI's 6.5% stems from GPT-5.5's solid all-rounder status without matching Anthropic's specialized edge. xAI and others trail due to narrower strengths. With the resolution approaching, any new model drops or major benchmark shifts could still alter the consensus before June closes.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$5,902,694Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, with their 1M-token context windows, advanced agentic features, and strong performance on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, have driven the 69.7% implied probability that it will hold the top AI model spot by end of June. Traders view these updates as delivering reliable real-world capabilities that outpace competitors in enterprise and developer workflows. Google's 21.5% reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's benchmark leads in reasoning and accuracy, while OpenAI's 6.5% stems from GPT-5.5's solid all-rounder status without matching Anthropic's specialized edge. xAI and others trail due to narrower strengths. With the resolution approaching, any new model drops or major benchmark shifts could still alter the consensus before June closes.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$5,902,694Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's recent releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, with their 1M-token context windows, advanced agentic features, and strong performance on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, have driven the 69.7% implied probability that it will hold the top AI model spot by end of June. Traders view these updates as delivering reliable real-world capabilities that outpace competitors in enterprise and developer workflows. Google's 21.5% reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's benchmark leads in reasoning and accuracy, while OpenAI's 6.5% stems from GPT-5.5's solid all-rounder status without matching Anthropic's specialized edge. xAI and others trail due to narrower strengths. With the resolution approaching, any new model drops or major benchmark shifts could still alter the consensus before June closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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