Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the best AI model by May 31, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's sustained dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with the highest Elo rating around 1501. This frontier large language model, released in mid-April alongside the Mythos Preview, excels in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks per benchmarks like SWE-Bench, outpacing rivals with multiple Anthropic entries in the top five. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 trails at #8, while Google's 10.5% reflects anticipation for Gemini advancements at I/O on May 19. Absent major surprises, Anthropic's 1-3 month capability lead over peers cements its positioning, though rapid AI iteration keeps resolution uncertain.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di maggio?
Quale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di maggio?
Anthropic 87%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.3%
xAI <1%
$6,225,674 Vol.
$6,225,674 Vol.

Anthropic
87%

11%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Meta
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 87%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.3%
xAI <1%
$6,225,674 Vol.
$6,225,674 Vol.

Anthropic
87%

11%

OpenAI
2%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Meta
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the best AI model by May 31, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's sustained dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with the highest Elo rating around 1501. This frontier large language model, released in mid-April alongside the Mythos Preview, excels in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks per benchmarks like SWE-Bench, outpacing rivals with multiple Anthropic entries in the top five. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 trails at #8, while Google's 10.5% reflects anticipation for Gemini advancements at I/O on May 19. Absent major surprises, Anthropic's 1-3 month capability lead over peers cements its positioning, though rapid AI iteration keeps resolution uncertain.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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