Polymarket traders assign a 39.4% implied probability to SpaceX raising $50-60 billion in its anticipated 2026 IPO, reflecting caution despite recent reports of a targeted $70-75 billion raise at a $1.5-2 trillion valuation. Confidential S-1 filing in early April 2026 and CNBC-sourced buzz on prospectus disclosure as soon as next week have fueled optimism for the 70-80B (23.5%) and 80-90B (19.1%) buckets, driven by Starlink's $4.4 billion operating income and secondary sales valuing the firm above $1.5 trillion. However, trader consensus tempers expectations amid equity market volatility, lofty multiples exceeding 100x EBITDA estimates, and risks from Starship development delays, with roadshow slated for early June.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$138,944 Vol.
$138,944 Vol.
<40 miliardi
12%
40-50 miliardi
7%
50-60 miliardi
37%
60-70 miliardi
10%
70-80B
24%
80-90 miliardi
19%
90-100 miliardi
6%
100-110B
4%
110-120 miliardi
4%
120 miliardi+
8%
$138,944 Vol.
$138,944 Vol.
<40 miliardi
$10,245 Vol.
12%
40-50 miliardi
$5,642 Vol.
7%
50-60 miliardi
$33,182 Vol.
37%
60-70 miliardi
$14,185 Vol.
10%
70-80B
$24,628 Vol.
24%
80-90 miliardi
$15,593 Vol.
19%
90-100 miliardi
$10,727 Vol.
6%
100-110B
$7,565 Vol.
4%
110-120 miliardi
$9,411 Vol.
4%
120 miliardi+
$7,767 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders assign a 39.4% implied probability to SpaceX raising $50-60 billion in its anticipated 2026 IPO, reflecting caution despite recent reports of a targeted $70-75 billion raise at a $1.5-2 trillion valuation. Confidential S-1 filing in early April 2026 and CNBC-sourced buzz on prospectus disclosure as soon as next week have fueled optimism for the 70-80B (23.5%) and 80-90B (19.1%) buckets, driven by Starlink's $4.4 billion operating income and secondary sales valuing the firm above $1.5 trillion. However, trader consensus tempers expectations amid equity market volatility, lofty multiples exceeding 100x EBITDA estimates, and risks from Starship development delays, with roadshow slated for early June.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$138,944Mercato aperto
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders assign a 39.4% implied probability to SpaceX raising $50-60 billion in its anticipated 2026 IPO, reflecting caution despite recent reports of a targeted $70-75 billion raise at a $1.5-2 trillion valuation. Confidential S-1 filing in early April 2026 and CNBC-sourced buzz on prospectus disclosure as soon as next week have fueled optimism for the 70-80B (23.5%) and 80-90B (19.1%) buckets, driven by Starlink's $4.4 billion operating income and secondary sales valuing the firm above $1.5 trillion. However, trader consensus tempers expectations amid equity market volatility, lofty multiples exceeding 100x EBITDA estimates, and risks from Starship development delays, with roadshow slated for early June.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$138,944Mercato aperto
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 39.4% implied probability to SpaceX raising $50-60 billion in its anticipated 2026 IPO, reflecting caution despite recent reports of a targeted $70-75 billion raise at a $1.5-2 trillion valuation. Confidential S-1 filing in early April 2026 and CNBC-sourced buzz on prospectus disclosure as soon as next week have fueled optimism for the 70-80B (23.5%) and 80-90B (19.1%) buckets, driven by Starlink's $4.4 billion operating income and secondary sales valuing the firm above $1.5 trillion. However, trader consensus tempers expectations amid equity market volatility, lofty multiples exceeding 100x EBITDA estimates, and risks from Starship development delays, with roadshow slated for early June.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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