Illinois' strong Democratic lean and the open Senate seat formerly held by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin underpin trader consensus favoring Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton at 95.3%. Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026 after a competitive primary against Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, backed by Gov. JB Pritzker and reflecting broad party support in a state with consistent Democratic statewide wins. Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair, faces structural headwinds in a reliably blue electorate. With the November 3 general election under 100 days away, limited recent developments have altered positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late-breaking scandals, health events, or sharp national Republican momentum, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current fundamentals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$29,618 Vol.
$29,618 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Juliana Stratton (D)
95%
Don Tracy (R)
4%
$29,618 Vol.
$29,618 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Juliana Stratton (D)
$15,199 Vol.
95%
Don Tracy (R)
$14,419 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois' strong Democratic lean and the open Senate seat formerly held by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin underpin trader consensus favoring Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton at 95.3%. Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026 after a competitive primary against Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, backed by Gov. JB Pritzker and reflecting broad party support in a state with consistent Democratic statewide wins. Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair, faces structural headwinds in a reliably blue electorate. With the November 3 general election under 100 days away, limited recent developments have altered positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late-breaking scandals, health events, or sharp national Republican momentum, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,618Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois' strong Democratic lean and the open Senate seat formerly held by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin underpin trader consensus favoring Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton at 95.3%. Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026 after a competitive primary against Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, backed by Gov. JB Pritzker and reflecting broad party support in a state with consistent Democratic statewide wins. Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair, faces structural headwinds in a reliably blue electorate. With the November 3 general election under 100 days away, limited recent developments have altered positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late-breaking scandals, health events, or sharp national Republican momentum, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$29,618Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois' strong Democratic lean and the open Senate seat formerly held by retiring Sen. Dick Durbin underpin trader consensus favoring Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton at 95.3%. Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in March 2026 after a competitive primary against Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, backed by Gov. JB Pritzker and reflecting broad party support in a state with consistent Democratic statewide wins. Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair, faces structural headwinds in a reliably blue electorate. With the November 3 general election under 100 days away, limited recent developments have altered positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late-breaking scandals, health events, or sharp national Republican momentum, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current fundamentals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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