The Illinois 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs including Cicero and Berwyn. The open-seat race following incumbent Chuy García’s retirement features Democratic nominee Patty Garcia against Republican Lupe Castillo, with multiple forecasters rating the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Recent developments, including the removal of independent candidates from the November 2026 ballot and Garcia’s primary performance amid several Democratic contenders, have reinforced the party’s structural advantage. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.7% implied probability, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican upset would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or late-breaking events capable of overcoming the area’s established voting patterns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIL-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
IL-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$58,090 Vol.
$58,090 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
95%
Partito Repubblicano
5%
$58,090 Vol.
$58,090 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$42,282 Vol.
95%
Partito Repubblicano
$15,808 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs including Cicero and Berwyn. The open-seat race following incumbent Chuy García’s retirement features Democratic nominee Patty Garcia against Republican Lupe Castillo, with multiple forecasters rating the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Recent developments, including the removal of independent candidates from the November 2026 ballot and Garcia’s primary performance amid several Democratic contenders, have reinforced the party’s structural advantage. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.7% implied probability, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican upset would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or late-breaking events capable of overcoming the area’s established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$58,090Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs including Cicero and Berwyn. The open-seat race following incumbent Chuy García’s retirement features Democratic nominee Patty Garcia against Republican Lupe Castillo, with multiple forecasters rating the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Recent developments, including the removal of independent candidates from the November 2026 ballot and Garcia’s primary performance amid several Democratic contenders, have reinforced the party’s structural advantage. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.7% implied probability, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican upset would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or late-breaking events capable of overcoming the area’s established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$58,090Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs including Cicero and Berwyn. The open-seat race following incumbent Chuy García’s retirement features Democratic nominee Patty Garcia against Republican Lupe Castillo, with multiple forecasters rating the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Recent developments, including the removal of independent candidates from the November 2026 ballot and Garcia’s primary performance amid several Democratic contenders, have reinforced the party’s structural advantage. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.7% implied probability, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure. A Republican upset would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or late-breaking events capable of overcoming the area’s established voting patterns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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