Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten's commanding 92.3% trader consensus in the IL-06 House race reflects the district's D+3 Cook Partisan Voter Index, where Kamala Harris won 52% in 2024, combined with his eight-point general election victory over Republican Niki Conforti last cycle and dominant incumbency advantages. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by Casten's $1.8 million in fundraising through March—dwarfing Conforti's under $120,000—and endorsements from unions like AFL-CIO and environmental groups. No notable developments have emerged since the March primaries, leaving structural factors intact ahead of the November 3 ballot. Late-breaking scandals, health events, or a national GOP midterm surge could challenge this, though such shifts remain unlikely per expert ratings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIL-06 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
IL-06 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$25,407 Vol.
$25,407 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
92%
Partito Repubblicano
5%
$25,407 Vol.
$25,407 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$9,301 Vol.
92%
Partito Repubblicano
$16,106 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten's commanding 92.3% trader consensus in the IL-06 House race reflects the district's D+3 Cook Partisan Voter Index, where Kamala Harris won 52% in 2024, combined with his eight-point general election victory over Republican Niki Conforti last cycle and dominant incumbency advantages. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by Casten's $1.8 million in fundraising through March—dwarfing Conforti's under $120,000—and endorsements from unions like AFL-CIO and environmental groups. No notable developments have emerged since the March primaries, leaving structural factors intact ahead of the November 3 ballot. Late-breaking scandals, health events, or a national GOP midterm surge could challenge this, though such shifts remain unlikely per expert ratings.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$25,407Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten's commanding 92.3% trader consensus in the IL-06 House race reflects the district's D+3 Cook Partisan Voter Index, where Kamala Harris won 52% in 2024, combined with his eight-point general election victory over Republican Niki Conforti last cycle and dominant incumbency advantages. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by Casten's $1.8 million in fundraising through March—dwarfing Conforti's under $120,000—and endorsements from unions like AFL-CIO and environmental groups. No notable developments have emerged since the March primaries, leaving structural factors intact ahead of the November 3 ballot. Late-breaking scandals, health events, or a national GOP midterm surge could challenge this, though such shifts remain unlikely per expert ratings.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,407Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten's commanding 92.3% trader consensus in the IL-06 House race reflects the district's D+3 Cook Partisan Voter Index, where Kamala Harris won 52% in 2024, combined with his eight-point general election victory over Republican Niki Conforti last cycle and dominant incumbency advantages. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by Casten's $1.8 million in fundraising through March—dwarfing Conforti's under $120,000—and endorsements from unions like AFL-CIO and environmental groups. No notable developments have emerged since the March primaries, leaving structural factors intact ahead of the November 3 ballot. Late-breaking scandals, health events, or a national GOP midterm surge could challenge this, though such shifts remain unlikely per expert ratings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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