**Official National Weather Service observations from Chicago O’Hare International Airport recorded a daily minimum temperature of 63–64°F on October 12, 2026, locking in the 64-65°F bin at 100% market-implied probability.** This outcome reflects strong southerly flow and high pressure that produced unseasonably warm conditions, pushing the afternoon high to a record 88°F—far above the 1991–2020 average low near 48°F and well clear of cooler bins. With the date now past and preliminary climatological data (CF6 reports) confirming the overnight low, trader consensus aligns with verified station measurements rather than forecast uncertainty. Revisions to the official record or use of an alternate station could theoretically alter resolution, though such adjustments remain rare once preliminary data are finalized.