**Hot, humid subtropical conditions typical of mid-July in Hong Kong are the main driver of current market-implied odds.** Daily minimum temperatures usually fall in the 26–29 °C range under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon, elevated sea-surface temperatures, and the urban heat-island effect that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent seasonal guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026, consistent with the elevated probabilities attached to 28 °C (33.5 %) and the 32 °C-or-higher outcome (43.5 %). Short-range numerical weather prediction runs through 24 July show only modest day-to-day variability, with overnight lows forecast near 26–28 °C (78–82 °F) under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Any strengthening of the subtropical ridge or reduced cloud cover could push the minimum higher, while an unexpected increase in onshore flow or showers would favor the lower-probability outcomes below 27 °C. The next official forecast updates from the Observatory and major global models in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signal for how traders adjust these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 24 luglio?
La temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 24 luglio?
32°C o superiore 73%
29°C 25%
27°C 24%
28°C 24%
NUOVO
NUOVO
24 lug 2026
22°C o inferiore
13%
23°C
1%
24°C
8%
25°C
1%
26°C
19%
27°C
18%
28°C
24%
29°C
25%
30°C
11%
31°C
15%
32°C o superiore
73%
32°C o superiore 73%
29°C 25%
27°C 24%
28°C 24%
NUOVO
NUOVO
24 lug 2026
22°C o inferiore
$32 Vol.
13%
23°C
$37 Vol.
1%
24°C
$33 Vol.
8%
25°C
$27 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
19%
27°C
$4 Vol.
18%
28°C
$127 Vol.
24%
29°C
$0 Vol.
25%
30°C
$27 Vol.
11%
31°C
$37 Vol.
15%
32°C o superiore
$37 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Hot, humid subtropical conditions typical of mid-July in Hong Kong are the main driver of current market-implied odds.** Daily minimum temperatures usually fall in the 26–29 °C range under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon, elevated sea-surface temperatures, and the urban heat-island effect that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent seasonal guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026, consistent with the elevated probabilities attached to 28 °C (33.5 %) and the 32 °C-or-higher outcome (43.5 %).
Short-range numerical weather prediction runs through 24 July show only modest day-to-day variability, with overnight lows forecast near 26–28 °C (78–82 °F) under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Any strengthening of the subtropical ridge or reduced cloud cover could push the minimum higher, while an unexpected increase in onshore flow or showers would favor the lower-probability outcomes below 27 °C. The next official forecast updates from the Observatory and major global models in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signal for how traders adjust these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jul 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$360Data di fine
24 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Hot, humid subtropical conditions typical of mid-July in Hong Kong are the main driver of current market-implied odds.** Daily minimum temperatures usually fall in the 26–29 °C range under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon, elevated sea-surface temperatures, and the urban heat-island effect that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent seasonal guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026, consistent with the elevated probabilities attached to 28 °C (33.5 %) and the 32 °C-or-higher outcome (43.5 %).
Short-range numerical weather prediction runs through 24 July show only modest day-to-day variability, with overnight lows forecast near 26–28 °C (78–82 °F) under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Any strengthening of the subtropical ridge or reduced cloud cover could push the minimum higher, while an unexpected increase in onshore flow or showers would favor the lower-probability outcomes below 27 °C. The next official forecast updates from the Observatory and major global models in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signal for how traders adjust these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$360Data di fine
24 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Hot, humid subtropical conditions typical of mid-July in Hong Kong are the main driver of current market-implied odds.** Daily minimum temperatures usually fall in the 26–29 °C range under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon, elevated sea-surface temperatures, and the urban heat-island effect that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent seasonal guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026, consistent with the elevated probabilities attached to 28 °C (33.5 %) and the 32 °C-or-higher outcome (43.5 %). Short-range numerical weather prediction runs through 24 July show only modest day-to-day variability, with overnight lows forecast near 26–28 °C (78–82 °F) under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Any strengthening of the subtropical ridge or reduced cloud cover could push the minimum higher, while an unexpected increase in onshore flow or showers would favor the lower-probability outcomes below 27 °C. The next official forecast updates from the Observatory and major global models in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signal for how traders adjust these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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