Recent ensemble forecasts from major centers project Istanbul's October 2 minimum near 15–17°C, driven by persistent northeasterly flow and extensive cloud cover from showers that limit overnight radiative cooling. Historical October climatology shows typical lows of 12–15°C, but the current pattern features milder advection and higher dew points that suppress further drops. Model consensus on precipitation timing and wind strength creates the tight clustering around 15°C in trader odds, while the elevated 21°C+ probability captures uncertainty over exact clearing or wind shifts before the overnight minimum is recorded. New model runs and observational updates through the evening will refine these thresholds.