Recent observational data and model consensus from sources like GFS point to clear skies and light winds over Madrid enabling strong nighttime radiative cooling, with temperatures falling to an expected minimum near 11°C in the early morning hours before daytime warming. This aligns with climatological October averages around 11–12°C and current conditions showing evening readings in the mid-teens Celsius. The market-implied odds heavily favor 11°C as the daily low, reflecting trader assessment of these stable atmospheric conditions. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized urban heat effects could prevent reaching that threshold, while colder-than-forecast advection might push it lower, though both appear low-probability given the latest guidance.