Recent numerical weather prediction model runs show notable spread in Mexico City's expected minimum temperature for October 11, with consensus lows clustered near 13–15 °C amid lingering moisture and variable overnight cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and regional models indicates a mild overnight period influenced by light winds and high humidity, yet small shifts in steering patterns or precipitation timing could push readings several degrees lower or higher. This genuine forecast uncertainty underpins the closely balanced market-implied odds near 47.5 % for both sub-8 °C and 18 °C-plus outcomes, with specific temperature bins trading around 33–35 %. Updated model cycles and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the range ahead of resolution.