**Official National Weather Service forecasts for Miami on October 15, 2026, point to an overnight low near 81°F under partly cloudy skies and a steady east wind of 10–13 mph, which limits radiative cooling amid elevated dew points near 76°F.** This setup aligns with the market’s leading 80–81°F bin at 55.5% implied probability, as persistent easterly flow and high humidity maintain warmth typical of a late-summer pattern rather than the climatological average low of ~74°F. Model consensus shows minimal overnight drop, with hourly readings holding in the upper 70s to low 80s before daytime heating. Lower outcomes (78–79°F and below) carry secondary weight because any brief clearing or wind shift would need to overcome the current moist boundary layer to produce greater cooling. Traders appear to weight the authoritative NWS guidance and real-time observations most heavily for resolution at Miami International Airport.