Latest global and regional model runs, including those aligned with Korea Meteorological Administration guidance, point to an overnight minimum near 16–17°C in the Incheon area on October 16 under light southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. This places the outcome slightly above the mid-October climatological low of roughly 11–14°C, reflecting a warmer-than-average airmass. Ensemble spread remains modest, with the primary uncertainty tied to exact timing of any patchy showers or clearer intervals that could shift the recorded low by 1–2°C. Traders appear to weigh these short-range forecast details heavily, as the market will resolve on official station observations once the calendar day ends.