Trader consensus favors "Michael" surpassing $25 million in its fourth domestic weekend at 67% implied probability, propelled by exceptional word-of-mouth that delivered a mere 30% drop to $37.9 million in weekend three, far outperforming typical biopic legs amid mixed critic scores but glowing audience reception. Recent midweek hauls—$4.7 million Tuesday and steady dailies pushing domestic cume past $253 million—underscore sustained demand, with the film nearing $600 million worldwide and cementing its status as 2026's fourth highest-grossing release. Minimal competition and Lionsgate's promotional push position it for another strong frame before potential streaming pivot, though a sharper drop could cap it at 22-25 million per the 30% market slice.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoBox Office 4° Weekend “Michael”
Box Office 4° Weekend “Michael”
>25 milioni 67%
22-25 milioni 30%
19-22 mln 3.1%
<19 mln 1.5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 mag 2026
<19 mln
2%
19-22 mln
3%
22-25 milioni
30%
>25 milioni
67%
>25 milioni 67%
22-25 milioni 30%
19-22 mln 3.1%
<19 mln 1.5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 mag 2026
<19 mln
$1,180 Vol.
2%
19-22 mln
$1,581 Vol.
3%
22-25 milioni
$1,331 Vol.
30%
>25 milioni
$4,945 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus favors "Michael" surpassing $25 million in its fourth domestic weekend at 67% implied probability, propelled by exceptional word-of-mouth that delivered a mere 30% drop to $37.9 million in weekend three, far outperforming typical biopic legs amid mixed critic scores but glowing audience reception. Recent midweek hauls—$4.7 million Tuesday and steady dailies pushing domestic cume past $253 million—underscore sustained demand, with the film nearing $600 million worldwide and cementing its status as 2026's fourth highest-grossing release. Minimal competition and Lionsgate's promotional push position it for another strong frame before potential streaming pivot, though a sharper drop could cap it at 22-25 million per the 30% market slice.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercato aperto: May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
Volume
$9,036Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus favors "Michael" surpassing $25 million in its fourth domestic weekend at 67% implied probability, propelled by exceptional word-of-mouth that delivered a mere 30% drop to $37.9 million in weekend three, far outperforming typical biopic legs amid mixed critic scores but glowing audience reception. Recent midweek hauls—$4.7 million Tuesday and steady dailies pushing domestic cume past $253 million—underscore sustained demand, with the film nearing $600 million worldwide and cementing its status as 2026's fourth highest-grossing release. Minimal competition and Lionsgate's promotional push position it for another strong frame before potential streaming pivot, though a sharper drop could cap it at 22-25 million per the 30% market slice.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$9,036Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors "Michael" surpassing $25 million in its fourth domestic weekend at 67% implied probability, propelled by exceptional word-of-mouth that delivered a mere 30% drop to $37.9 million in weekend three, far outperforming typical biopic legs amid mixed critic scores but glowing audience reception. Recent midweek hauls—$4.7 million Tuesday and steady dailies pushing domestic cume past $253 million—underscore sustained demand, with the film nearing $600 million worldwide and cementing its status as 2026's fourth highest-grossing release. Minimal competition and Lionsgate's promotional push position it for another strong frame before potential streaming pivot, though a sharper drop could cap it at 22-25 million per the 30% market slice.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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