**High population immunity from prior SARS-CoV-2 infections and vaccinations, combined with low current severity of circulating Omicron subvariants, underpins the 96.2% market-implied probability against a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026.** Official surveillance from the CDC and WHO shows SARS-CoV-2 activity remains low and stable globally, with emergency department visits at just 0.3% and hospitalizations limited despite a modest summer uptick (Rt around 1.08). Variants such as NB.1.8.1 (Nimbus), XFG (Stratus), and BA.3.2 (Cicada) demonstrate immune escape but cause mild illness comparable to recent seasons, reflecting the endemic phase established by 2025. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include emergence of a highly virulent novel coronavirus via zoonotic spillover or a major antigenic shift producing severe disease at scale, though current genomic monitoring detects no such threat.