North Korea’s missile testing patterns show bursts of activity often followed by pauses, with traders assigning a 69% implied probability to fewer than two tests in May reflecting the lack of launches through mid-month after multiple April firings of short-range ballistic missiles equipped with cluster munitions. This positioning aligns with Pyongyang’s established cycle of demonstrating capabilities in response to external pressures before easing activity absent fresh triggers such as U.S.-South Korea military exercises or sanctions developments. The 26% odds on two to three tests account for potential mid-month responses to regional drills or diplomatic posturing by Kim Jong Un, while the low 5% chance of four or more highlights structural barriers to sustained escalation without major new provocations before month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in May 2026?
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in May 2026?
<2 69%
2-3 26%
4+ 2.0%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 mag 2026
<2
69%
2-3
26%
4+
11%
<2 69%
2-3 26%
4+ 2.0%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 mag 2026
<2
$1,344 Vol.
69%
2-3
$3,160 Vol.
26%
4+
$516 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea’s missile testing patterns show bursts of activity often followed by pauses, with traders assigning a 69% implied probability to fewer than two tests in May reflecting the lack of launches through mid-month after multiple April firings of short-range ballistic missiles equipped with cluster munitions. This positioning aligns with Pyongyang’s established cycle of demonstrating capabilities in response to external pressures before easing activity absent fresh triggers such as U.S.-South Korea military exercises or sanctions developments. The 26% odds on two to three tests account for potential mid-month responses to regional drills or diplomatic posturing by Kim Jong Un, while the low 5% chance of four or more highlights structural barriers to sustained escalation without major new provocations before month-end.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$5,020Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea’s missile testing patterns show bursts of activity often followed by pauses, with traders assigning a 69% implied probability to fewer than two tests in May reflecting the lack of launches through mid-month after multiple April firings of short-range ballistic missiles equipped with cluster munitions. This positioning aligns with Pyongyang’s established cycle of demonstrating capabilities in response to external pressures before easing activity absent fresh triggers such as U.S.-South Korea military exercises or sanctions developments. The 26% odds on two to three tests account for potential mid-month responses to regional drills or diplomatic posturing by Kim Jong Un, while the low 5% chance of four or more highlights structural barriers to sustained escalation without major new provocations before month-end.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$5,020Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Korea’s missile testing patterns show bursts of activity often followed by pauses, with traders assigning a 69% implied probability to fewer than two tests in May reflecting the lack of launches through mid-month after multiple April firings of short-range ballistic missiles equipped with cluster munitions. This positioning aligns with Pyongyang’s established cycle of demonstrating capabilities in response to external pressures before easing activity absent fresh triggers such as U.S.-South Korea military exercises or sanctions developments. The 26% odds on two to three tests account for potential mid-month responses to regional drills or diplomatic posturing by Kim Jong Un, while the low 5% chance of four or more highlights structural barriers to sustained escalation without major new provocations before month-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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