Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to OPEC not dissolving in 2026, reflecting the organization's resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1. Core OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, swiftly demonstrated continuity through recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee decisions, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June announced May 3 and today's downward revision to 2026 global oil demand growth at 1.17 million bpd amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This skin-in-the-game pricing underscores sustained coordination on production quotas and market stability despite geopolitical strains from Iran tensions. Realistic challenges include cascading member exits, failed quota compliance, or prolonged Middle East conflicts eroding unity ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$16,734 Vol.
$16,734 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$16,734 Vol.
$16,734 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to OPEC not dissolving in 2026, reflecting the organization's resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1. Core OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, swiftly demonstrated continuity through recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee decisions, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June announced May 3 and today's downward revision to 2026 global oil demand growth at 1.17 million bpd amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This skin-in-the-game pricing underscores sustained coordination on production quotas and market stability despite geopolitical strains from Iran tensions. Realistic challenges include cascading member exits, failed quota compliance, or prolonged Middle East conflicts eroding unity ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$16,734Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to OPEC not dissolving in 2026, reflecting the organization's resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1. Core OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, swiftly demonstrated continuity through recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee decisions, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June announced May 3 and today's downward revision to 2026 global oil demand growth at 1.17 million bpd amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This skin-in-the-game pricing underscores sustained coordination on production quotas and market stability despite geopolitical strains from Iran tensions. Realistic challenges include cascading member exits, failed quota compliance, or prolonged Middle East conflicts eroding unity ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,734Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to OPEC not dissolving in 2026, reflecting the organization's resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1. Core OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, swiftly demonstrated continuity through recent Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee decisions, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June announced May 3 and today's downward revision to 2026 global oil demand growth at 1.17 million bpd amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This skin-in-the-game pricing underscores sustained coordination on production quotas and market stability despite geopolitical strains from Iran tensions. Realistic challenges include cascading member exits, failed quota compliance, or prolonged Middle East conflicts eroding unity ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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