SpaceX's post-IPO trading trajectory since its June 2026 debut at $135 per share, which initially propelled the market cap above $2 trillion, anchors trader positioning around the $1.75–2.00 trillion range at 61.5% implied probability. Subsequent pullbacks to the $150–165 band have supported elevated odds on the adjacent $1.25–1.50 trillion and $2.00–2.25 trillion buckets, reflecting revenue multiples exceeding 100x trailing sales amid heavy first-half capex and free-cash-flow pressure. With resolution just weeks away, near-term share-price stability and any updates on Starlink growth or capital-spending trends represent the key swing factors for these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato<$1.00T 66%
$1.75-$2.00T 62%
$1.25-$1.50T 36%
$2.00-$2.25T 36%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
<$1.00T
66%
$1.00-$1.25T
34%
$1.25-$1.50T
36%
$1.50-$1.75T
18%
$1.75-$2.00T
62%
$2.00-$2.25T
36%
$2.25T+
34%
<$1.00T 66%
$1.75-$2.00T 62%
$1.25-$1.50T 36%
$2.00-$2.25T 36%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
<$1.00T
$10 Vol.
66%
$1.00-$1.25T
$0 Vol.
34%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
36%
$1.50-$1.75T
$2,084 Vol.
18%
$1.75-$2.00T
$0 Vol.
62%
$2.00-$2.25T
$0 Vol.
36%
$2.25T+
$0 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO trading trajectory since its June 2026 debut at $135 per share, which initially propelled the market cap above $2 trillion, anchors trader positioning around the $1.75–2.00 trillion range at 61.5% implied probability. Subsequent pullbacks to the $150–165 band have supported elevated odds on the adjacent $1.25–1.50 trillion and $2.00–2.25 trillion buckets, reflecting revenue multiples exceeding 100x trailing sales amid heavy first-half capex and free-cash-flow pressure. With resolution just weeks away, near-term share-price stability and any updates on Starlink growth or capital-spending trends represent the key swing factors for these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Mercato aperto: Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$2,094Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO trading trajectory since its June 2026 debut at $135 per share, which initially propelled the market cap above $2 trillion, anchors trader positioning around the $1.75–2.00 trillion range at 61.5% implied probability. Subsequent pullbacks to the $150–165 band have supported elevated odds on the adjacent $1.25–1.50 trillion and $2.00–2.25 trillion buckets, reflecting revenue multiples exceeding 100x trailing sales amid heavy first-half capex and free-cash-flow pressure. With resolution just weeks away, near-term share-price stability and any updates on Starlink growth or capital-spending trends represent the key swing factors for these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$2,094Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's post-IPO trading trajectory since its June 2026 debut at $135 per share, which initially propelled the market cap above $2 trillion, anchors trader positioning around the $1.75–2.00 trillion range at 61.5% implied probability. Subsequent pullbacks to the $150–165 band have supported elevated odds on the adjacent $1.25–1.50 trillion and $2.00–2.25 trillion buckets, reflecting revenue multiples exceeding 100x trailing sales amid heavy first-half capex and free-cash-flow pressure. With resolution just weeks away, near-term share-price stability and any updates on Starlink growth or capital-spending trends represent the key swing factors for these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
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