SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility, currently implying a roughly $1.5 trillion market capitalization near $133 per share as of early August 2026, anchors trader sentiment for the end-of-September resolution. Recent lock-up releases, first quarterly results, and Starlink subscriber trends versus high fixed costs create competing paths across valuation buckets, with analyst targets spanning wide multiples on projected 2026 revenue near $39 billion. Market-implied odds clustered near 47% across ranges reflect uncertainty over near-term execution on Starship milestones and broader risk appetite, rather than any single catalyst resolving the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato<$1.00T 48%
$1.00-$1.25T 48%
$1.25-$1.50T 48%
$2.25T+ 48%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 set 2026
<$1.00T
48%
$1.00-$1.25T
48%
$1.25-$1.50T
48%
$1.50-$1.75T
47%
$1.75-$2.00T
47%
$2.00-$2.25T
47%
$2.25T+
48%
<$1.00T 48%
$1.00-$1.25T 48%
$1.25-$1.50T 48%
$2.25T+ 48%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 set 2026
<$1.00T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.00-$1.25T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.50-$1.75T
$0 Vol.
47%
$1.75-$2.00T
$0 Vol.
47%
$2.00-$2.25T
$0 Vol.
47%
$2.25T+
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility, currently implying a roughly $1.5 trillion market capitalization near $133 per share as of early August 2026, anchors trader sentiment for the end-of-September resolution. Recent lock-up releases, first quarterly results, and Starlink subscriber trends versus high fixed costs create competing paths across valuation buckets, with analyst targets spanning wide multiples on projected 2026 revenue near $39 billion. Market-implied odds clustered near 47% across ranges reflect uncertainty over near-term execution on Starship milestones and broader risk appetite, rather than any single catalyst resolving the outcome.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Mercato aperto: Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility, currently implying a roughly $1.5 trillion market capitalization near $133 per share as of early August 2026, anchors trader sentiment for the end-of-September resolution. Recent lock-up releases, first quarterly results, and Starlink subscriber trends versus high fixed costs create competing paths across valuation buckets, with analyst targets spanning wide multiples on projected 2026 revenue near $39 billion. Market-implied odds clustered near 47% across ranges reflect uncertainty over near-term execution on Starship milestones and broader risk appetite, rather than any single catalyst resolving the outcome.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$0Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility, currently implying a roughly $1.5 trillion market capitalization near $133 per share as of early August 2026, anchors trader sentiment for the end-of-September resolution. Recent lock-up releases, first quarterly results, and Starlink subscriber trends versus high fixed costs create competing paths across valuation buckets, with analyst targets spanning wide multiples on projected 2026 revenue near $39 billion. Market-implied odds clustered near 47% across ranges reflect uncertainty over near-term execution on Starship milestones and broader risk appetite, rather than any single catalyst resolving the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
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