**Traders assign a 92.5% probability to “No” because Turkey’s ruling alliance lacks the parliamentary arithmetic needed for a new constitution this year, despite sustained AKP rhetoric and preparatory work.** A full replacement or major overhaul of the 1982 charter requires at least 360 votes in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly to trigger a referendum (or 400 for direct passage), yet the AKP-MHP bloc controls roughly 321–328 seats. Opposition parties remain reluctant to provide the margin, viewing the effort as linked to term-limit circumvention for President Erdoğan ahead of the 2028 election. Recent developments reinforce this assessment. AKP commissions continue drafting multiple alternative texts and evaluating limited reforms, such as modest shifts of executive powers to the cabinet and parliament. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated that a “civilian” constitution remains a priority and could materialize in 2026–2027. The August 2026 passage of the PKK-related “framework law” with 468 votes demonstrated cross-bloc cooperation on security issues and briefly raised hopes for constitutional consensus. However, that support has not translated into votes for a new charter, and fractured opposition dynamics (including the CHP split) have not produced the additional seats required. With only four months left in 2026 and no draft bill tabled for floor consideration, the market reflects the view that any substantive move is more likely deferred until after the 2028 cycle or until broader political realignments occur.