Strong El Niño conditions expected this fall are the main factor keeping trader odds closely balanced across US tornado count ranges for October 2026, as historical analogs show these patterns often suppress severe weather outbreaks through altered jet stream positioning and reduced Gulf moisture contrasts. Typical October activity averages 58–65 confirmed tornadoes based on 1991–2020 data, concentrated in the southern Plains and Southeast, but El Niño’s influence on the subtropical jet and warmer northern temperatures can limit the clashing air masses needed for supercells. Recent Gulf sea-surface temperature anomalies and lingering tropical moisture add short-term variability, while model consensus points to below-average totals unless late-month fronts strengthen. Upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks and early October data releases will clarify whether activity aligns nearer the 35–59 or 60–89 bins versus lower extremes.