Mount Vesuvius remains at a green alert level with no significant seismic, deformation, or gas emission signals reported by INGV monitoring through mid-2026, consistent with its long quiescence since the 1944 eruption. This extended repose, far shorter than typical multi-century intervals between VEI 1+ events, underpins the 94.9% market-implied probability against an eruption this year. Traders weigh the absence of precursory unrest against the volcano’s well-instrumented caldera system, where magma ascent would likely produce detectable changes well in advance. A sudden swarm of deep earthquakes or sharp rise in fumarolic activity could alter odds, though current data show no such shift.