The INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano's real-time monitoring data underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability for no Vesuvius eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 or higher in 2026, reflecting trader consensus on the volcano's persistent quiescence since its last VEI 3 eruption in 1944. Current green alert status confirms baseline conditions: moderate low-magnitude seismic swarms (typically under M 2.0), stable ground deformation via GPS networks, low-temperature fumarolic degassing, and no thermal or geochemical anomalies signaling magma intrusion. With over four months of 2026 elapsed absent precursors, historical repose patterns align with low annual eruption odds. Realistic challenges include sudden deep seismicity spikes, measurable uplift, or SO2 emission surges, tracked via continuous seismic, geodetic, and gas sensor arrays; forthcoming INGV bulletins could signal shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
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31 dic 2026
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31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.The INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano's real-time monitoring data underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability for no Vesuvius eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 or higher in 2026, reflecting trader consensus on the volcano's persistent quiescence since its last VEI 3 eruption in 1944. Current green alert status confirms baseline conditions: moderate low-magnitude seismic swarms (typically under M 2.0), stable ground deformation via GPS networks, low-temperature fumarolic degassing, and no thermal or geochemical anomalies signaling magma intrusion. With over four months of 2026 elapsed absent precursors, historical repose patterns align with low annual eruption odds. Realistic challenges include sudden deep seismicity spikes, measurable uplift, or SO2 emission surges, tracked via continuous seismic, geodetic, and gas sensor arrays; forthcoming INGV bulletins could signal shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mercato aperto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$431Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.The INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano's real-time monitoring data underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability for no Vesuvius eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 or higher in 2026, reflecting trader consensus on the volcano's persistent quiescence since its last VEI 3 eruption in 1944. Current green alert status confirms baseline conditions: moderate low-magnitude seismic swarms (typically under M 2.0), stable ground deformation via GPS networks, low-temperature fumarolic degassing, and no thermal or geochemical anomalies signaling magma intrusion. With over four months of 2026 elapsed absent precursors, historical repose patterns align with low annual eruption odds. Realistic challenges include sudden deep seismicity spikes, measurable uplift, or SO2 emission surges, tracked via continuous seismic, geodetic, and gas sensor arrays; forthcoming INGV bulletins could signal shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$431Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano's real-time monitoring data underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability for no Vesuvius eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 1 or higher in 2026, reflecting trader consensus on the volcano's persistent quiescence since its last VEI 3 eruption in 1944. Current green alert status confirms baseline conditions: moderate low-magnitude seismic swarms (typically under M 2.0), stable ground deformation via GPS networks, low-temperature fumarolic degassing, and no thermal or geochemical anomalies signaling magma intrusion. With over four months of 2026 elapsed absent precursors, historical repose patterns align with low annual eruption odds. Realistic challenges include sudden deep seismicity spikes, measurable uplift, or SO2 emission surges, tracked via continuous seismic, geodetic, and gas sensor arrays; forthcoming INGV bulletins could signal shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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