The 96% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 stems primarily from the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced roughly ten confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths before rapid isolation and repatriation halted further spread. Official CDC and WHO surveillance through mid-August shows no sustained community transmission or imported chains, consistent with Andes virus requiring prolonged close contact for rare human-to-human spread rather than efficient airborne routes typical of pandemic pathogens. Historical patterns of sporadic rodent-borne cases worldwide reinforce this low-risk profile. While a mutation boosting transmissibility or undetected clusters could theoretically shift outcomes, current epidemiological data and monitoring thresholds make such developments improbable before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPandemia di Hantavirus nel 2026?
Pandemia di Hantavirus nel 2026?
Sì
4% probabilità
$17,792,548 Vol.
$17,792,548 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$17,792,548 Vol.
$17,792,548 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 96% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 stems primarily from the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced roughly ten confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths before rapid isolation and repatriation halted further spread. Official CDC and WHO surveillance through mid-August shows no sustained community transmission or imported chains, consistent with Andes virus requiring prolonged close contact for rare human-to-human spread rather than efficient airborne routes typical of pandemic pathogens. Historical patterns of sporadic rodent-borne cases worldwide reinforce this low-risk profile. While a mutation boosting transmissibility or undetected clusters could theoretically shift outcomes, current epidemiological data and monitoring thresholds make such developments improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$17,792,548Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 96% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 stems primarily from the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced roughly ten confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths before rapid isolation and repatriation halted further spread. Official CDC and WHO surveillance through mid-August shows no sustained community transmission or imported chains, consistent with Andes virus requiring prolonged close contact for rare human-to-human spread rather than efficient airborne routes typical of pandemic pathogens. Historical patterns of sporadic rodent-borne cases worldwide reinforce this low-risk profile. While a mutation boosting transmissibility or undetected clusters could theoretically shift outcomes, current epidemiological data and monitoring thresholds make such developments improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,792,548Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 96% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 stems primarily from the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced roughly ten confirmed or suspected cases and three deaths before rapid isolation and repatriation halted further spread. Official CDC and WHO surveillance through mid-August shows no sustained community transmission or imported chains, consistent with Andes virus requiring prolonged close contact for rare human-to-human spread rather than efficient airborne routes typical of pandemic pathogens. Historical patterns of sporadic rodent-borne cases worldwide reinforce this low-risk profile. While a mutation boosting transmissibility or undetected clusters could theoretically shift outcomes, current epidemiological data and monitoring thresholds make such developments improbable before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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