Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, confirmed in May 2026, remains regionally confined despite rapid growth to over 4,600 cases and 2,100 deaths in the DRC with limited imports to Uganda. Official CDC and WHO surveillance data confirm no sustained community transmission outside these zones, consistent with Ebola's requirement for direct contact with infected fluids rather than airborne spread. Containment through isolation, contact tracing, and border measures has interrupted chains effectively, aligning with historical patterns where global exportation stays rare. Realistic scenarios that could alter odds include undetected urban exportation or emergence of a higher-transmissibility variant, though current monitoring shows no such developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% probabilità
$691,757 Vol.
$691,757 Vol.
31 dic 2026
4% probabilità
$691,757 Vol.
$691,757 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, confirmed in May 2026, remains regionally confined despite rapid growth to over 4,600 cases and 2,100 deaths in the DRC with limited imports to Uganda. Official CDC and WHO surveillance data confirm no sustained community transmission outside these zones, consistent with Ebola's requirement for direct contact with infected fluids rather than airborne spread. Containment through isolation, contact tracing, and border measures has interrupted chains effectively, aligning with historical patterns where global exportation stays rare. Realistic scenarios that could alter odds include undetected urban exportation or emergence of a higher-transmissibility variant, though current monitoring shows no such developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$691,757Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, confirmed in May 2026, remains regionally confined despite rapid growth to over 4,600 cases and 2,100 deaths in the DRC with limited imports to Uganda. Official CDC and WHO surveillance data confirm no sustained community transmission outside these zones, consistent with Ebola's requirement for direct contact with infected fluids rather than airborne spread. Containment through isolation, contact tracing, and border measures has interrupted chains effectively, aligning with historical patterns where global exportation stays rare. Realistic scenarios that could alter odds include undetected urban exportation or emergence of a higher-transmissibility variant, though current monitoring shows no such developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$691,757Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026 because the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, confirmed in May 2026, remains regionally confined despite rapid growth to over 4,600 cases and 2,100 deaths in the DRC with limited imports to Uganda. Official CDC and WHO surveillance data confirm no sustained community transmission outside these zones, consistent with Ebola's requirement for direct contact with infected fluids rather than airborne spread. Containment through isolation, contact tracing, and border measures has interrupted chains effectively, aligning with historical patterns where global exportation stays rare. Realistic scenarios that could alter odds include undetected urban exportation or emergence of a higher-transmissibility variant, though current monitoring shows no such developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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