Busan’s coastal location on South Korea’s southeast shore typically moderates August maxima through sea-breeze effects, keeping daily highs near the 29–31 °C climatological average. Current KMA guidance and global model consensus point to persistent high pressure with light northeasterly flow, supporting afternoon temperatures of 31–32 °C on August 15, while any increase in cloud cover or isolated showers could cap readings at 30 °C. Recent heat-wave conditions across the peninsula have eased slightly, reducing the likelihood of 34 °C or higher but leaving genuine uncertainty between the two leading outcomes. Updated KMA short-range forecasts and ensemble runs issued in the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether subsidence strengthens or moisture arrives, directly influencing trader positioning around these closely matched probabilities.