Latest ensemble forecasts from regional and global models indicate a daily maximum near 26°C for Istanbul on August 15, aligning with mid-August climatology of 27–29°C highs moderated by the Marmara and Black Seas. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate northerly flow are limiting strong daytime heating and cloud development, supporting the market-implied 64.5% probability for 26°C and combined 84% odds on 25–27°C. Updated guidance shows only modest upside potential to 27°C if insolation increases slightly, while lower readings would require greater cloud cover or wind shifts not currently favored by major models. Traders are weighting these latest runs ahead of resolution, with limited divergence reducing uncertainty in this narrow range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Istanbul il 15 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Istanbul il 15 agosto?
26°C 65%
27°C 20%
25°C 15%
24°C 2.7%
$19,742 Vol.
$19,742 Vol.
15 ago 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
3%
25°C
15%
26°C
65%
27°C
20%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 65%
27°C 20%
25°C 15%
24°C 2.7%
$19,742 Vol.
$19,742 Vol.
15 ago 2026
22°C or below
$433 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,081 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$2,189 Vol.
3%
25°C
$3,497 Vol.
15%
26°C
$6,277 Vol.
65%
27°C
$3,147 Vol.
20%
28°C
$1,470 Vol.
1%
29°C
$621 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$313 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$342 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from regional and global models indicate a daily maximum near 26°C for Istanbul on August 15, aligning with mid-August climatology of 27–29°C highs moderated by the Marmara and Black Seas. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate northerly flow are limiting strong daytime heating and cloud development, supporting the market-implied 64.5% probability for 26°C and combined 84% odds on 25–27°C. Updated guidance shows only modest upside potential to 27°C if insolation increases slightly, while lower readings would require greater cloud cover or wind shifts not currently favored by major models. Traders are weighting these latest runs ahead of resolution, with limited divergence reducing uncertainty in this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$19,742Data di fine
15 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from regional and global models indicate a daily maximum near 26°C for Istanbul on August 15, aligning with mid-August climatology of 27–29°C highs moderated by the Marmara and Black Seas. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate northerly flow are limiting strong daytime heating and cloud development, supporting the market-implied 64.5% probability for 26°C and combined 84% odds on 25–27°C. Updated guidance shows only modest upside potential to 27°C if insolation increases slightly, while lower readings would require greater cloud cover or wind shifts not currently favored by major models. Traders are weighting these latest runs ahead of resolution, with limited divergence reducing uncertainty in this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19,742Data di fine
15 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from regional and global models indicate a daily maximum near 26°C for Istanbul on August 15, aligning with mid-August climatology of 27–29°C highs moderated by the Marmara and Black Seas. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate northerly flow are limiting strong daytime heating and cloud development, supporting the market-implied 64.5% probability for 26°C and combined 84% odds on 25–27°C. Updated guidance shows only modest upside potential to 27°C if insolation increases slightly, while lower readings would require greater cloud cover or wind shifts not currently favored by major models. Traders are weighting these latest runs ahead of resolution, with limited divergence reducing uncertainty in this narrow range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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