Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate Moscow's August 15 high will most likely peak near 19–21 °C, driven by a transitional high-pressure system with limited daytime heating and variable cloud cover. This places the market's near-even 40 % odds on 19 °C and 20 °C in line with the narrow spread across model runs, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Mid-August climatology averages roughly 22 °C, yet the current cooler-than-normal pattern has tightened the distribution around these values. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model updates most heavily, as any revision in the 00Z or 12Z runs before resolution could readily move probability between the two leading outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Mosca il 15 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Mosca il 15 agosto?
20°C 43%
19°C 28%
21°C 18%
18°C 15%
NUOVO
NUOVO
15 ago 2026
15°C or below
4%
16°C
5%
17°C
5%
18°C
15%
19°C
30%
20°C
43%
21°C
18%
22°C
3%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
2%
20°C 43%
19°C 28%
21°C 18%
18°C 15%
NUOVO
NUOVO
15 ago 2026
15°C or below
$31 Vol.
4%
16°C
$19 Vol.
5%
17°C
$305 Vol.
5%
18°C
$115 Vol.
15%
19°C
$214 Vol.
30%
20°C
$142 Vol.
43%
21°C
$140 Vol.
18%
22°C
$58 Vol.
3%
23°C
$5 Vol.
5%
24°C
$12 Vol.
5%
25°C or higher
$12 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate Moscow's August 15 high will most likely peak near 19–21 °C, driven by a transitional high-pressure system with limited daytime heating and variable cloud cover. This places the market's near-even 40 % odds on 19 °C and 20 °C in line with the narrow spread across model runs, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Mid-August climatology averages roughly 22 °C, yet the current cooler-than-normal pattern has tightened the distribution around these values. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model updates most heavily, as any revision in the 00Z or 12Z runs before resolution could readily move probability between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,053Data di fine
15 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate Moscow's August 15 high will most likely peak near 19–21 °C, driven by a transitional high-pressure system with limited daytime heating and variable cloud cover. This places the market's near-even 40 % odds on 19 °C and 20 °C in line with the narrow spread across model runs, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Mid-August climatology averages roughly 22 °C, yet the current cooler-than-normal pattern has tightened the distribution around these values. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model updates most heavily, as any revision in the 00Z or 12Z runs before resolution could readily move probability between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,053Data di fine
15 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate Moscow's August 15 high will most likely peak near 19–21 °C, driven by a transitional high-pressure system with limited daytime heating and variable cloud cover. This places the market's near-even 40 % odds on 19 °C and 20 °C in line with the narrow spread across model runs, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Mid-August climatology averages roughly 22 °C, yet the current cooler-than-normal pattern has tightened the distribution around these values. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model updates most heavily, as any revision in the 00Z or 12Z runs before resolution could readily move probability between the two leading outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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