Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to no new pandemic in 2026 because official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows no novel pathogen with sustained human-to-human transmission across continents. The largest active event—an Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo declared a public health emergency of international concern in May—has produced thousands of cases but remains regionally contained through contact tracing and response measures, without global exportation. Measles surges and seasonal respiratory activity involve established pathogens, while avian influenza and other monitored threats have not achieved pandemic-level adaptation. Enhanced post-COVID systems, including the 2025 Pandemic Agreement, underpin early detection. A shift would require an undetected zoonotic spillover or rapid viral evolution enabling efficient airborne spread before containment.