Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only low-magnitude events (typically below M3) near Los Angeles through mid-August 2026, with no M5+ activity in the central basin this year. Trader consensus for "No" at 93.2% stems primarily from the narrow remaining window through December 2026 combined with the region's background rate: long-term UCERF3 models assign roughly 60% probability of an M6.7+ quake over 30 years, implying annualized odds well below 4% for an M6.5+ event within typical LA radii. While foreshock sequences or accelerated slip on nearby faults such as the San Andreas or Puente Hills could elevate short-term risk, the absence of such indicators in current catalogs keeps the market-implied odds firmly aligned with historical recurrence patterns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTerremoto di magnitudo 6.5+ a Los Angeles prima del 2027?
Terremoto di magnitudo 6.5+ a Los Angeles prima del 2027?
7% probabilità
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
31 dic 2026
7% probabilità
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only low-magnitude events (typically below M3) near Los Angeles through mid-August 2026, with no M5+ activity in the central basin this year. Trader consensus for "No" at 93.2% stems primarily from the narrow remaining window through December 2026 combined with the region's background rate: long-term UCERF3 models assign roughly 60% probability of an M6.7+ quake over 30 years, implying annualized odds well below 4% for an M6.5+ event within typical LA radii. While foreshock sequences or accelerated slip on nearby faults such as the San Andreas or Puente Hills could elevate short-term risk, the absence of such indicators in current catalogs keeps the market-implied odds firmly aligned with historical recurrence patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$16,533Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only low-magnitude events (typically below M3) near Los Angeles through mid-August 2026, with no M5+ activity in the central basin this year. Trader consensus for "No" at 93.2% stems primarily from the narrow remaining window through December 2026 combined with the region's background rate: long-term UCERF3 models assign roughly 60% probability of an M6.7+ quake over 30 years, implying annualized odds well below 4% for an M6.5+ event within typical LA radii. While foreshock sequences or accelerated slip on nearby faults such as the San Andreas or Puente Hills could elevate short-term risk, the absence of such indicators in current catalogs keeps the market-implied odds firmly aligned with historical recurrence patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$16,533Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center shows only low-magnitude events (typically below M3) near Los Angeles through mid-August 2026, with no M5+ activity in the central basin this year. Trader consensus for "No" at 93.2% stems primarily from the narrow remaining window through December 2026 combined with the region's background rate: long-term UCERF3 models assign roughly 60% probability of an M6.7+ quake over 30 years, implying annualized odds well below 4% for an M6.5+ event within typical LA radii. While foreshock sequences or accelerated slip on nearby faults such as the San Andreas or Puente Hills could elevate short-term risk, the absence of such indicators in current catalogs keeps the market-implied odds firmly aligned with historical recurrence patterns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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