NOAA's August 2026 update projects a well below-normal Atlantic season with just 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes, reflecting elevated wind shear, cooler Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and a developing La Niña pattern that typically suppresses intensification. Through mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with no hurricanes recorded, well below the 1991-2020 averages. Category 5 systems, which require sustained winds exceeding 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale, remain especially improbable for U.S. landfall given the limited major hurricane potential and historical rarity—fewer than a dozen such strikes have occurred since 1900. These conditions underpin traders' strong consensus favoring no Category 5 landfall before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQualche uragano di categoria 5 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Qualche uragano di categoria 5 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Sì
12% probabilità
$139,323 Vol.
$139,323 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
12% probabilità
$139,323 Vol.
$139,323 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA's August 2026 update projects a well below-normal Atlantic season with just 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes, reflecting elevated wind shear, cooler Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and a developing La Niña pattern that typically suppresses intensification. Through mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with no hurricanes recorded, well below the 1991-2020 averages. Category 5 systems, which require sustained winds exceeding 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale, remain especially improbable for U.S. landfall given the limited major hurricane potential and historical rarity—fewer than a dozen such strikes have occurred since 1900. These conditions underpin traders' strong consensus favoring no Category 5 landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$139,323Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA's August 2026 update projects a well below-normal Atlantic season with just 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes, reflecting elevated wind shear, cooler Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and a developing La Niña pattern that typically suppresses intensification. Through mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with no hurricanes recorded, well below the 1991-2020 averages. Category 5 systems, which require sustained winds exceeding 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale, remain especially improbable for U.S. landfall given the limited major hurricane potential and historical rarity—fewer than a dozen such strikes have occurred since 1900. These conditions underpin traders' strong consensus favoring no Category 5 landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$139,323Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA's August 2026 update projects a well below-normal Atlantic season with just 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes, reflecting elevated wind shear, cooler Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and a developing La Niña pattern that typically suppresses intensification. Through mid-August, only three weak tropical storms have formed with no hurricanes recorded, well below the 1991-2020 averages. Category 5 systems, which require sustained winds exceeding 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale, remain especially improbable for U.S. landfall given the limited major hurricane potential and historical rarity—fewer than a dozen such strikes have occurred since 1900. These conditions underpin traders' strong consensus favoring no Category 5 landfall before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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