Trader consensus strongly favors No at 89% implied probability because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories for 2026, consistent with the absence of significant impact threats over the next century. Historical frequency data show 10-kiloton-class events occur on multi-year intervals rather than annually, and all recently discovered near-Earth objects—including 2026 HJ1 and 2026 JH2—have passed or will pass safely at distances well beyond the Moon. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits without identifying new risks, leaving only the small chance of an undetected small impactor to sustain the modest Yes probability ahead of year-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero meteorico maggiore (10 kt +) nel 2026?
Sciopero meteorico maggiore (10 kt +) nel 2026?
Sì
12% probabilità
$178,784 Vol.
$178,784 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
12% probabilità
$178,784 Vol.
$178,784 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus strongly favors No at 89% implied probability because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories for 2026, consistent with the absence of significant impact threats over the next century. Historical frequency data show 10-kiloton-class events occur on multi-year intervals rather than annually, and all recently discovered near-Earth objects—including 2026 HJ1 and 2026 JH2—have passed or will pass safely at distances well beyond the Moon. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits without identifying new risks, leaving only the small chance of an undetected small impactor to sustain the modest Yes probability ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$178,784Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus strongly favors No at 89% implied probability because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories for 2026, consistent with the absence of significant impact threats over the next century. Historical frequency data show 10-kiloton-class events occur on multi-year intervals rather than annually, and all recently discovered near-Earth objects—including 2026 HJ1 and 2026 JH2—have passed or will pass safely at distances well beyond the Moon. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits without identifying new risks, leaving only the small chance of an undetected small impactor to sustain the modest Yes probability ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$178,784Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors No at 89% implied probability because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories for 2026, consistent with the absence of significant impact threats over the next century. Historical frequency data show 10-kiloton-class events occur on multi-year intervals rather than annually, and all recently discovered near-Earth objects—including 2026 HJ1 and 2026 JH2—have passed or will pass safely at distances well beyond the Moon. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits without identifying new risks, leaving only the small chance of an undetected small impactor to sustain the modest Yes probability ahead of year-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti