The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAtterraggio umano sulla luna nel 2026?
Atterraggio umano sulla luna nel 2026?
Sì
<1% probabilità
$1,967,148 Vol.
$1,967,148 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
<1% probabilità
$1,967,148 Vol.
$1,967,148 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,967,148Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,967,148Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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