SpaceX’s aggressive Starship development timeline continues to shape trader sentiment, with the market heavily favoring fewer than five launches reaching space in 2026 at 58.5% implied probability. The primary driver remains the program’s deliberate, iterative testing cadence after just five flights in 2025, now compounded by the delayed debut of the fully redesigned Starship V3 architecture and its new orbital launch pad. Flight 12, scheduled for May 19, 2026, will mark the first flight test of Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and pad 2 infrastructure, yet early-year delays and the need for propellant-transfer and long-duration demonstrations later in 2026 introduce substantial technical and regulatory uncertainty. Traders appear to discount rapid scaling until V3 achieves repeatable orbital performance and tower catches.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
Quanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
<5 59%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.4%
9-10 2.4%
$449,633 Vol.
$449,633 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
59%
5-6
24%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
2%
<5 59%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.4%
9-10 2.4%
$449,633 Vol.
$449,633 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$90,544 Vol.
59%
5-6
$108,316 Vol.
24%
7-8
$152,148 Vol.
4%
9-10
$55,882 Vol.
2%
11-12
$3,765 Vol.
2%
13-14
$4,747 Vol.
1%
15-16
$25,181 Vol.
2%
>16
$9,048 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX’s aggressive Starship development timeline continues to shape trader sentiment, with the market heavily favoring fewer than five launches reaching space in 2026 at 58.5% implied probability. The primary driver remains the program’s deliberate, iterative testing cadence after just five flights in 2025, now compounded by the delayed debut of the fully redesigned Starship V3 architecture and its new orbital launch pad. Flight 12, scheduled for May 19, 2026, will mark the first flight test of Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and pad 2 infrastructure, yet early-year delays and the need for propellant-transfer and long-duration demonstrations later in 2026 introduce substantial technical and regulatory uncertainty. Traders appear to discount rapid scaling until V3 achieves repeatable orbital performance and tower catches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$449,633Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX’s aggressive Starship development timeline continues to shape trader sentiment, with the market heavily favoring fewer than five launches reaching space in 2026 at 58.5% implied probability. The primary driver remains the program’s deliberate, iterative testing cadence after just five flights in 2025, now compounded by the delayed debut of the fully redesigned Starship V3 architecture and its new orbital launch pad. Flight 12, scheduled for May 19, 2026, will mark the first flight test of Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and pad 2 infrastructure, yet early-year delays and the need for propellant-transfer and long-duration demonstrations later in 2026 introduce substantial technical and regulatory uncertainty. Traders appear to discount rapid scaling until V3 achieves repeatable orbital performance and tower catches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$449,633Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX’s aggressive Starship development timeline continues to shape trader sentiment, with the market heavily favoring fewer than five launches reaching space in 2026 at 58.5% implied probability. The primary driver remains the program’s deliberate, iterative testing cadence after just five flights in 2025, now compounded by the delayed debut of the fully redesigned Starship V3 architecture and its new orbital launch pad. Flight 12, scheduled for May 19, 2026, will mark the first flight test of Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and pad 2 infrastructure, yet early-year delays and the need for propellant-transfer and long-duration demonstrations later in 2026 introduce substantial technical and regulatory uncertainty. Traders appear to discount rapid scaling until V3 achieves repeatable orbital performance and tower catches.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti