Recent successful flights of SpaceX's upgraded Starship V3 vehicles, including the 12th overall test in May and 13th in July 2026 with Starlink V3 satellite deployments, have strengthened trader confidence in incremental cadence gains. These milestones, building on Raptor 3 engine reliability and new launch infrastructure at Starbase, position 5-6 total space-reaching launches as the leading outcome at 61.5% implied probability by reflecting steady production and testing progress without overcommitting to unproven high-volume operations. A sub-5 result holds notable support at 33.5% amid ongoing vehicle iteration, regulatory reviews, and supply chain limits, while higher bins remain low-probability due to typical aerospace timelines and the need for further orbital demonstrations before sustained commercial or Artemis-related activity accelerates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
Quanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
5-6 62%
<5 34%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 3.1%
$492,887 Vol.
$492,887 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
34%
5-6
62%
7-8
8%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 62%
<5 34%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 3.1%
$492,887 Vol.
$492,887 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$99,128 Vol.
34%
5-6
$113,791 Vol.
62%
7-8
$158,458 Vol.
8%
9-10
$61,464 Vol.
3%
11-12
$8,371 Vol.
3%
13-14
$9,146 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$30,046 Vol.
<1%
>16
$12,483 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent successful flights of SpaceX's upgraded Starship V3 vehicles, including the 12th overall test in May and 13th in July 2026 with Starlink V3 satellite deployments, have strengthened trader confidence in incremental cadence gains. These milestones, building on Raptor 3 engine reliability and new launch infrastructure at Starbase, position 5-6 total space-reaching launches as the leading outcome at 61.5% implied probability by reflecting steady production and testing progress without overcommitting to unproven high-volume operations. A sub-5 result holds notable support at 33.5% amid ongoing vehicle iteration, regulatory reviews, and supply chain limits, while higher bins remain low-probability due to typical aerospace timelines and the need for further orbital demonstrations before sustained commercial or Artemis-related activity accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$492,887Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent successful flights of SpaceX's upgraded Starship V3 vehicles, including the 12th overall test in May and 13th in July 2026 with Starlink V3 satellite deployments, have strengthened trader confidence in incremental cadence gains. These milestones, building on Raptor 3 engine reliability and new launch infrastructure at Starbase, position 5-6 total space-reaching launches as the leading outcome at 61.5% implied probability by reflecting steady production and testing progress without overcommitting to unproven high-volume operations. A sub-5 result holds notable support at 33.5% amid ongoing vehicle iteration, regulatory reviews, and supply chain limits, while higher bins remain low-probability due to typical aerospace timelines and the need for further orbital demonstrations before sustained commercial or Artemis-related activity accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$492,887Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent successful flights of SpaceX's upgraded Starship V3 vehicles, including the 12th overall test in May and 13th in July 2026 with Starlink V3 satellite deployments, have strengthened trader confidence in incremental cadence gains. These milestones, building on Raptor 3 engine reliability and new launch infrastructure at Starbase, position 5-6 total space-reaching launches as the leading outcome at 61.5% implied probability by reflecting steady production and testing progress without overcommitting to unproven high-volume operations. A sub-5 result holds notable support at 33.5% amid ongoing vehicle iteration, regulatory reviews, and supply chain limits, while higher bins remain low-probability due to typical aerospace timelines and the need for further orbital demonstrations before sustained commercial or Artemis-related activity accelerates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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