SpaceX has completed just two Starship flights in 2026 through mid-August—Flight 12 in May and Flight 13 in July—both using upgraded V3 vehicles that demonstrated improved Raptor 3 performance and payload deployment attempts. This slow start, following years of iterative testing, anchors trader expectations around a modest annual total. Regulatory approvals, vehicle production rates, and the shift toward orbital attempts plus tower-catch experiments on upcoming flights like Flight 14 (targeted for late August or September) represent the main swing factors. While Elon Musk has signaled accelerating cadence, historical patterns of delays and the need for FAA licensing keep higher outcomes like 7+ at low implied probabilities, favoring the 5-6 range as the current consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
Quanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
5-6 57%
<5 33%
7-8 6.5%
9-10 3.0%
$493,114 Vol.
$493,114 Vol.
30 dic 2026
<5
33%
5-6
57%
7-8
7%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 57%
<5 33%
7-8 6.5%
9-10 3.0%
$493,114 Vol.
$493,114 Vol.
30 dic 2026
<5
$99,154 Vol.
33%
5-6
$113,820 Vol.
57%
7-8
$158,488 Vol.
7%
9-10
$61,502 Vol.
3%
11-12
$8,397 Vol.
3%
13-14
$9,172 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$30,073 Vol.
<1%
>16
$12,509 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed just two Starship flights in 2026 through mid-August—Flight 12 in May and Flight 13 in July—both using upgraded V3 vehicles that demonstrated improved Raptor 3 performance and payload deployment attempts. This slow start, following years of iterative testing, anchors trader expectations around a modest annual total. Regulatory approvals, vehicle production rates, and the shift toward orbital attempts plus tower-catch experiments on upcoming flights like Flight 14 (targeted for late August or September) represent the main swing factors. While Elon Musk has signaled accelerating cadence, historical patterns of delays and the need for FAA licensing keep higher outcomes like 7+ at low implied probabilities, favoring the 5-6 range as the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$493,114Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed just two Starship flights in 2026 through mid-August—Flight 12 in May and Flight 13 in July—both using upgraded V3 vehicles that demonstrated improved Raptor 3 performance and payload deployment attempts. This slow start, following years of iterative testing, anchors trader expectations around a modest annual total. Regulatory approvals, vehicle production rates, and the shift toward orbital attempts plus tower-catch experiments on upcoming flights like Flight 14 (targeted for late August or September) represent the main swing factors. While Elon Musk has signaled accelerating cadence, historical patterns of delays and the need for FAA licensing keep higher outcomes like 7+ at low implied probabilities, favoring the 5-6 range as the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$493,114Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX has completed just two Starship flights in 2026 through mid-August—Flight 12 in May and Flight 13 in July—both using upgraded V3 vehicles that demonstrated improved Raptor 3 performance and payload deployment attempts. This slow start, following years of iterative testing, anchors trader expectations around a modest annual total. Regulatory approvals, vehicle production rates, and the shift toward orbital attempts plus tower-catch experiments on upcoming flights like Flight 14 (targeted for late August or September) represent the main swing factors. While Elon Musk has signaled accelerating cadence, historical patterns of delays and the need for FAA licensing keep higher outcomes like 7+ at low implied probabilities, favoring the 5-6 range as the current consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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