No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system or ESA monitoring carry trajectories capable of producing a 5 kt or greater atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026, supporting the 79% market-implied odds for “No.” Historical bolide data from the JPL Fireball repository show events at this energy scale occur irregularly, averaging fewer than one per year with significant yearly variability, and 2026 has recorded none meeting the threshold through early October. Recent small fireballs, including those from meter-scale objects like 2026 RW1, remain well below resolution criteria. Ongoing surveys continue to refine orbits without identifying new risks, though the undetected population introduces residual uncertainty until year-end surveillance updates.