No cataloged near-Earth objects currently show impact trajectories for the remainder of 2026, per continuous monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s NEOCC. This absence of identified threats supports the market-implied 69.5% probability for “No,” even as population models estimate 5–7 meter stony impactors—capable of roughly 5 kt TNT yield—strike Earth every 3–5 years on average, implying a 25–35% annual chance after accounting for observational gaps. Early-2026 fireball reports showed elevated smaller events below the threshold without altering the statistical baseline. With roughly 4.5 months remaining and no orbital revisions from recent discoveries, traders weigh the modest risk of an undetected impactor against the higher likelihood of no qualifying strike.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sì
30% probabilità
$312,008 Vol.
$312,008 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
30% probabilità
$312,008 Vol.
$312,008 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No cataloged near-Earth objects currently show impact trajectories for the remainder of 2026, per continuous monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s NEOCC. This absence of identified threats supports the market-implied 69.5% probability for “No,” even as population models estimate 5–7 meter stony impactors—capable of roughly 5 kt TNT yield—strike Earth every 3–5 years on average, implying a 25–35% annual chance after accounting for observational gaps. Early-2026 fireball reports showed elevated smaller events below the threshold without altering the statistical baseline. With roughly 4.5 months remaining and no orbital revisions from recent discoveries, traders weigh the modest risk of an undetected impactor against the higher likelihood of no qualifying strike.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$312,008Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No cataloged near-Earth objects currently show impact trajectories for the remainder of 2026, per continuous monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s NEOCC. This absence of identified threats supports the market-implied 69.5% probability for “No,” even as population models estimate 5–7 meter stony impactors—capable of roughly 5 kt TNT yield—strike Earth every 3–5 years on average, implying a 25–35% annual chance after accounting for observational gaps. Early-2026 fireball reports showed elevated smaller events below the threshold without altering the statistical baseline. With roughly 4.5 months remaining and no orbital revisions from recent discoveries, traders weigh the modest risk of an undetected impactor against the higher likelihood of no qualifying strike.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$312,008Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No cataloged near-Earth objects currently show impact trajectories for the remainder of 2026, per continuous monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s NEOCC. This absence of identified threats supports the market-implied 69.5% probability for “No,” even as population models estimate 5–7 meter stony impactors—capable of roughly 5 kt TNT yield—strike Earth every 3–5 years on average, implying a 25–35% annual chance after accounting for observational gaps. Early-2026 fireball reports showed elevated smaller events below the threshold without altering the statistical baseline. With roughly 4.5 months remaining and no orbital revisions from recent discoveries, traders weigh the modest risk of an undetected impactor against the higher likelihood of no qualifying strike.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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