NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, anchoring the market’s 96.9 percent “No” consensus. Objects in this size range, roughly 25–40 meters across, release energy comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event yet occur only once every several decades on average; comprehensive surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have identified all large candidates well in advance, with none posing impact risk this year. Trader confidence stems from zero qualifying detections through mid-May and routine model runs showing negligible cumulative probability. The only realistic pathway to a shift remains discovery of a previously undetected fast-moving bolide under 30 meters, though ongoing infrared surveys continue to shrink that residual uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMeteorite da 1 megatone nel 2026?
Meteorite da 1 megatone nel 2026?
Sì
$106,030 Vol.
$106,030 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$106,030 Vol.
$106,030 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, anchoring the market’s 96.9 percent “No” consensus. Objects in this size range, roughly 25–40 meters across, release energy comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event yet occur only once every several decades on average; comprehensive surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have identified all large candidates well in advance, with none posing impact risk this year. Trader confidence stems from zero qualifying detections through mid-May and routine model runs showing negligible cumulative probability. The only realistic pathway to a shift remains discovery of a previously undetected fast-moving bolide under 30 meters, though ongoing infrared surveys continue to shrink that residual uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$106,030Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, anchoring the market’s 96.9 percent “No” consensus. Objects in this size range, roughly 25–40 meters across, release energy comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event yet occur only once every several decades on average; comprehensive surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have identified all large candidates well in advance, with none posing impact risk this year. Trader confidence stems from zero qualifying detections through mid-May and routine model runs showing negligible cumulative probability. The only realistic pathway to a shift remains discovery of a previously undetected fast-moving bolide under 30 meters, though ongoing infrared surveys continue to shrink that residual uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$106,030Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system reports no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, anchoring the market’s 96.9 percent “No” consensus. Objects in this size range, roughly 25–40 meters across, release energy comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event yet occur only once every several decades on average; comprehensive surveys including Pan-STARRS and Catalina have identified all large candidates well in advance, with none posing impact risk this year. Trader confidence stems from zero qualifying detections through mid-May and routine model runs showing negligible cumulative probability. The only realistic pathway to a shift remains discovery of a previously undetected fast-moving bolide under 30 meters, though ongoing infrared surveys continue to shrink that residual uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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