A single magnitude 6.7 earthquake near Japan on May 15, confirmed by USGS data, has anchored trader consensus around exactly one event for the May 11–17 window at 78% implied probability. Global seismic catalogs show M6.5+ quakes typically follow a Poisson distribution averaging one to two per week, with no additional qualifying events recorded through May 16 in active zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire or Indonesia. Model runs and real-time monitoring indicate low aftershock potential and stable tectonic conditions elsewhere, reducing the chance of a second event before resolution on May 17. Final USGS catalog updates will confirm the outcome, as minor revisions occasionally occur near the threshold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
1 81%
2 16%
3 3.3%
0 <1%
$48,807 Vol.
$48,807 Vol.
17 mag 2026
0
1%
1
72%
2
16%
3
3%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
1 81%
2 16%
3 3.3%
0 <1%
$48,807 Vol.
$48,807 Vol.
17 mag 2026
0
$33,284 Vol.
1%
1
$4,702 Vol.
72%
2
$2,572 Vol.
16%
3
$1,806 Vol.
3%
4
$3,435 Vol.
<1%
5
$1,420 Vol.
<1%
>5
$1,588 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.A single magnitude 6.7 earthquake near Japan on May 15, confirmed by USGS data, has anchored trader consensus around exactly one event for the May 11–17 window at 78% implied probability. Global seismic catalogs show M6.5+ quakes typically follow a Poisson distribution averaging one to two per week, with no additional qualifying events recorded through May 16 in active zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire or Indonesia. Model runs and real-time monitoring indicate low aftershock potential and stable tectonic conditions elsewhere, reducing the chance of a second event before resolution on May 17. Final USGS catalog updates will confirm the outcome, as minor revisions occasionally occur near the threshold.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
Volume
$48,807Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.A single magnitude 6.7 earthquake near Japan on May 15, confirmed by USGS data, has anchored trader consensus around exactly one event for the May 11–17 window at 78% implied probability. Global seismic catalogs show M6.5+ quakes typically follow a Poisson distribution averaging one to two per week, with no additional qualifying events recorded through May 16 in active zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire or Indonesia. Model runs and real-time monitoring indicate low aftershock potential and stable tectonic conditions elsewhere, reducing the chance of a second event before resolution on May 17. Final USGS catalog updates will confirm the outcome, as minor revisions occasionally occur near the threshold.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$48,807Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A single magnitude 6.7 earthquake near Japan on May 15, confirmed by USGS data, has anchored trader consensus around exactly one event for the May 11–17 window at 78% implied probability. Global seismic catalogs show M6.5+ quakes typically follow a Poisson distribution averaging one to two per week, with no additional qualifying events recorded through May 16 in active zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire or Indonesia. Model runs and real-time monitoring indicate low aftershock potential and stable tectonic conditions elsewhere, reducing the chance of a second event before resolution on May 17. Final USGS catalog updates will confirm the outcome, as minor revisions occasionally occur near the threshold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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