Global seismic catalogs from the USGS indicate an average of 15–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes occur worldwide each year, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire. With five confirmed events through mid-May 2026—including the 7.5 near Tonga in March and the 7.4 off Japan in April—trader consensus for at least eight total by June 30 reflects both the typical half-year pace and the potential for Poisson-distributed clustering that can produce additional large events within weeks. No elevated foreshock activity or model anomalies appear in current USGS monitoring, leaving resolution dependent on whether the recent lull ends before the June 30 cutoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno?
Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno?
$1,852,681 Vol.
$1,852,681 Vol.
30 giu 2026
7
19%
8+
81%
$1,852,681 Vol.
$1,852,681 Vol.
30 giu 2026
7
$288,176 Vol.
19%
8+
$550,920 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Global seismic catalogs from the USGS indicate an average of 15–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes occur worldwide each year, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire. With five confirmed events through mid-May 2026—including the 7.5 near Tonga in March and the 7.4 off Japan in April—trader consensus for at least eight total by June 30 reflects both the typical half-year pace and the potential for Poisson-distributed clustering that can produce additional large events within weeks. No elevated foreshock activity or model anomalies appear in current USGS monitoring, leaving resolution dependent on whether the recent lull ends before the June 30 cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$1,852,681Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Global seismic catalogs from the USGS indicate an average of 15–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes occur worldwide each year, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire. With five confirmed events through mid-May 2026—including the 7.5 near Tonga in March and the 7.4 off Japan in April—trader consensus for at least eight total by June 30 reflects both the typical half-year pace and the potential for Poisson-distributed clustering that can produce additional large events within weeks. No elevated foreshock activity or model anomalies appear in current USGS monitoring, leaving resolution dependent on whether the recent lull ends before the June 30 cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,852,681Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Global seismic catalogs from the USGS indicate an average of 15–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes occur worldwide each year, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire. With five confirmed events through mid-May 2026—including the 7.5 near Tonga in March and the 7.4 off Japan in April—trader consensus for at least eight total by June 30 reflects both the typical half-year pace and the potential for Poisson-distributed clustering that can produce additional large events within weeks. No elevated foreshock activity or model anomalies appear in current USGS monitoring, leaving resolution dependent on whether the recent lull ends before the June 30 cutoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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