Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 25°C (33.5%) and 26°C (31.0%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ensemble forecasts amid a high-pressure system bringing clear skies and highs projected near 27–29°C. Recent JMA updates issued late May 15 show sunny conditions with 0% precipitation probability, but models diverge on peak afternoon heating due to potential sea breezes and urban heat island effects at the Otemachi observation station, where mid-May historical averages hover at 23–24°C. Lower odds for 27°C+ stem from climatological rarity this early and thin liquidity amplifying small forecast tweaks; watch JMA hourly bulletins through midday for resolution-defining shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
25°C 33%
26°C 31%
24°C 19%
27°C 16%
NUOVO
$51,747 Vol.
NUOVO
$51,747 Vol.
16 mag 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
19%
25°C
33%
26°C
31%
27°C
16%
28°C or higher
6%
25°C 33%
26°C 31%
24°C 19%
27°C 16%
NUOVO
$51,747 Vol.
NUOVO
$51,747 Vol.
16 mag 2026
18°C or below
$7,240 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$11,353 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$9,307 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,579 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$5,948 Vol.
1%
23°C
$3,719 Vol.
3%
24°C
$2,103 Vol.
19%
25°C
$2,102 Vol.
33%
26°C
$2,414 Vol.
31%
27°C
$2,094 Vol.
16%
28°C or higher
$2,910 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 25°C (33.5%) and 26°C (31.0%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ensemble forecasts amid a high-pressure system bringing clear skies and highs projected near 27–29°C. Recent JMA updates issued late May 15 show sunny conditions with 0% precipitation probability, but models diverge on peak afternoon heating due to potential sea breezes and urban heat island effects at the Otemachi observation station, where mid-May historical averages hover at 23–24°C. Lower odds for 27°C+ stem from climatological rarity this early and thin liquidity amplifying small forecast tweaks; watch JMA hourly bulletins through midday for resolution-defining shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Volume
$51,747Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 25°C (33.5%) and 26°C (31.0%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ensemble forecasts amid a high-pressure system bringing clear skies and highs projected near 27–29°C. Recent JMA updates issued late May 15 show sunny conditions with 0% precipitation probability, but models diverge on peak afternoon heating due to potential sea breezes and urban heat island effects at the Otemachi observation station, where mid-May historical averages hover at 23–24°C. Lower odds for 27°C+ stem from climatological rarity this early and thin liquidity amplifying small forecast tweaks; watch JMA hourly bulletins through midday for resolution-defining shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51,747Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 25°C (33.5%) and 26°C (31.0%) for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ensemble forecasts amid a high-pressure system bringing clear skies and highs projected near 27–29°C. Recent JMA updates issued late May 15 show sunny conditions with 0% precipitation probability, but models diverge on peak afternoon heating due to potential sea breezes and urban heat island effects at the Otemachi observation station, where mid-May historical averages hover at 23–24°C. Lower odds for 27°C+ stem from climatological rarity this early and thin liquidity amplifying small forecast tweaks; watch JMA hourly bulletins through midday for resolution-defining shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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